Security National Bank private client services team forecasts that the U.S. will enter a mild recession early next year. We expect inflation will fall below 2% during the recession before returning to a long-term average of 3%. We expect the Federal Funds Target Rate (FFR) to stay at 5.50% through the second quarter of next year before a series of rate cuts return it to the neutral level of 3.5%. The yield curve will likely remain inverted until rate cuts are nearly finished. We expect earnings for the S&P 500 to stagnate for several years.
