Security National Bank's private client services team expects inflationary pressures to remain tame for the foreseeable future. Longer-term inflation will likely be higher than what prevailed before the pandemic. We expect the FRB to begin an easing cycle in September. The FFR will return to the neutral level of 3.75% next year. We expect the 10-year Treasury to end the year at 4.25%. Fiscal pressures will eventually lead to higher long-term rates. We expect earnings for the S&P 500 to post modest growth for the rest of this economic cycle. We do not foresee a recession this year or next, but growth will likely disappoint.
