Security National Bank’s private client services team continues to forecast the United States (U.S.) will enter a mild recession early next year; inflation will fall below 2% during the recession before returning to a long-term average of 2.8%. We expect the Federal Funds Target Rate (FFR) to stay at 5.5% through midyear before a series of rate cuts return it to the neutral level of 3.5% in 2025. The yield curve will remain inverted until the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) begins easing. We expect earnings for the S&P 500 to post modest growth for several years.
